According to the World Bank’s assessment, Armenia will have the highest economic growth in the South Caucasus over the next three years. Moreover, while that internationally respected organization forecasts lower economic growth for Azerbaijan and Georgia than it had indicated in its previous report of June 2019, in Armenia’s case it finds that economic growth will be higher compared to its previous forecast.
According to the report published by the World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, Armenia closed 2019 with 6.9 percent growth, and this year it will have 5.1 percent, in 2021 higher at 5.2 percent, and the same in 2022.
Last June the Bank had forecast that Armenian economic growth would be lower — 4.2 percent growth for 2019, and 4.9 percent for 2020.
In Georgia’s case the figures are lower. Our northern neighbor closed 2019 with 5.2 percent growth, will close 2020 with 4.3 percent, 2021 with 4.5 percent, and the same in 2022. Moreover, the Bank has worsened the Georgian economic growth indicator for this year and 2021 by half a percentage point. In the previous report it was stated that this year Georgia would have 4.8 percent growth, and in 2021, 5 percent.
Azerbaijan’s figures are lower. According to the World Bank’s assessment, Baku closed 2019 with 2.5 percent growth, that is, a figure more than 2.7 times lower than Armenian economic growth. In 2020 Azerbaijan will record 2.3 percent economic growth, in 2021, 2.1 percent, and the same in 2022. Moreover, the June 2019 report had forecast higher figures for the Azerbaijani economy, but growth has been reduced both for 2019 by 0.8 percentage points, and for this year by 1.2 percentage points, and for 2021 by 1.6 percentage points.
To sum up, according to the World Bank, in 2018-2022, over a five-year period, Armenia’s average annual economic growth will be 5.5 percent, Georgia’s 4.6 percent, and Azerbaijan’s 2 percent, or about 2.7 times less than Armenian growth.
The Armenian government is confident that they closed 2019 with at least 7.5 percent growth. This was announced at the executive’s last session of the previous year by Economy Minister Tigran Khachatryan.
At the government’s first session this year, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed economic growth, demanding that members of his team improve the indicator.
“The task is formulated very clearly: we expect quite high economic growth for last year, and in 2020 our economic growth indicator must be better than in 2019,” Pashinyan said.
